Election 2024: Trump 47%, Harris 46%

Just two months before Election Day, the race for the White House is now a dead heat, as former President Donald Trump’s lead over Vice President Kamala Harris has shrunk to a single point.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a two-way matchup, 47% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and another three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

A month ago, Trump led by five points but Harris has steadily reduced the margin, which last week was down to two points.

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The survey of 1,838 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on August 29 and September 1-4, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Trump continues to lead among independents. Eighty-seven percent (87%) of Republicans choose Trump and 84% of Democrats pick Harris. Among voters not affiliated with either major party, Trump gets 46% to Harris’s 41%.

The “gender gap” has become a significant factor in the presidential contest, as Trump leads by nine points among men, 52% to 43%, while Harris now has a six-point lead with women voters, 49% to 43%.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 29% of black voters, 52% of Hispanics and 40% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 44% of whites, 67% of black voters, 42% of Hispanics and 41% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

Harris leads among both voters under 40 and those 65 and older, while Trump leads by nine points, 51% to 42%, among voters ages 40-64.

Eighty-seven percent (87%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Harris, while 74% of conservatives would vote for Trump. Among moderate voters, Harris gets 53% to Trump’s 38%.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Harris leads by 10 points – 53% to 43% – among voters earning more than $200,000 a year, while Trump holds an identical 10-point advantage among voters with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

While Harris is now disavowing some of President Joe Biden’s unpopular policies, most voters say the vice president shares the blame for his failures – and shares credit for Biden’s successes. 

Tulsi Gabbard used to be a Democratic congresswoman, but she’s a Republican favorite now that she has endorsed Trump.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to Platinum Members only.

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