"It is the policy of the United States to eliminate the use of disparate-impact liability in all contexts to the maximum degree possible to avoid violating the Constitution, Federal civil rights laws, and basic American ideals."
— Many of 2024’s top presidential battlegrounds will feature high-profile gubernatorial elections in 2026.
— Arizona and Michigan start as the only two Toss-ups in our initial ratings.
— Be on the lookout for upsets thanks to the high number of open seats, perhaps coming from the long list of races that start rated as Likely for one side or the other.
President Donald Trump's record as the deregulation president is nearly unparalleled. In his first 100 days in office, he has already identified hundreds of billions of dollars of potential deregulation savings in the areas of energy, education and housing.
— While 2026 will feature three dozen gubernatorial contests, two states, New Jersey and Virginia, will elect governors in open-seat races this year.
— We are starting out both 2025 contests, which are in states that backed Kamala Harris by nearly 6 points apiece, as Leans Democratic.
— In New Jersey, Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D, NJ-11) is a tenuous favorite for the Democratic nomination amidst a crowded field, while 2021 GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is a stronger favorite on his side.
— Neither Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears (R-VA) nor former Rep. Abigail Spanberger (D, VA-7) have primary competition, so Virginia’s race is in general election mode earlier than usual.
Fifty years ago on April 30, Saigon fell to the North Vietnamese, and the defeat was America's, too.
Reality has a vote. That is one lesson administered to the body of politics in the first 100 days of President Donald Trump's second administration.
— Just a couple of basic factors—House generic ballot polling and the number of seats the presidential party is defending—do a decent job of predicting midterm congressional election results.
— This model suggests Democrats would be favored to win the House majority even without a substantial lead in House generic ballot polling.
— The model also is bullish on Democrats in the Senate, but we urge caution on the findings, as the Senate model is historically less predictive than the House model and does not take into account this cycle’s specific Senate map.
"Climate change will make earth a living hell!" claims popular astrophysicist Neil DeGrasse Tyson.
Rasmussen Reports released a concerning poll last week, revealing that at the three-month mark in President Donald Trump’s second term, a slim majority of voters are unhappy with the results thus far.
Pope Francis was meant to be a pontiff for the age of globalization.
Anyone remember back in 2008 when the housing market collapsed and the stock market crashed, with many tens of millions of Americans seeing their lifetime savings nearly wiped out?
It hardly qualifies as news anymore, but according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, union membership declined from 2023 to 2024, going from 10% to 9.9% of wage and salary workers. Some 32% of public employees are union members compared to only 5.9% of private-sector workers, down from 6% in 2023.
The PE and VC track records in funding small businesses and turning them into the future gazelles is almost a uniquely American success story.
I guess United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres didn't think his hyping global warming risks brought him enough attention, so now he says, "The era of global boiling has arrived!"
On CNN, approving of murder is hardly any worse than voting for Donald Trump.
It has been hard this past week, of tariffs applied worldwide on April 2 to tariffs suspended except for China on April 9, to avoid reflecting on how much trouble could have been avoided if economists, instead of talking about countries' trade surpluses and trade deficits, had devised different words -- say, "buyer-dominant" countries and "seller-dominant" countries.
— History suggested Democrats would be favored to flip the House in 2026 as soon as Donald Trump clinched the presidency in 2024.
— Little that’s happened over the last several months calls into question that initial, gut-level assessment. Democrats should flip the House next year, and we favor them to do so. Republicans do have a couple of factors working in their favor, though, that could help them as they seek to defy history.
— Our initial House ratings reflect a small House map, with Democrats narrowly ahead 209-207 in the seats that at least lean to one party or the other, with 19 Toss-ups.
President Donald Trump has predicted that his tariffs could raise as much as $6 trillion over the next decade in federal tax collections. These include up to 104% tariffs on China, plus the combination of reciprocal tariffs -- we charge them whatever they charge us. Also, don't forget the protectionist tariffs on steel, aluminum, autos, lumber, etc.
