Election 2024: Trump Keeps +2 Lead Over Harris

Less than a month until Election Day, there is no change in the race for the White House, as former President Donald Trump still holds a two-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for Trump, while 46% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

These findings are nearly unchanged since last week, when Trump held a 49% to 47% lead over Harris, and marks the fifth consecutive week that Trump has led by two points, dating back to September 12.

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The survey of 2,244 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on October 3 and 6-9, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Partisan intensity is even in this week’s survey, with 82% of Republicans picking Trump and 82% of Democrats choosing Harris. Trump owes his overall lead to a nine-point advantage among independents, with 49% to Harris’s 40% among voters not affiliated with either major party. Five percent (5%) of unaffiliated voters remain undecided.

Fifty-one percent (51%) of whites, 28% of black voters, 51% of Hispanics and 55% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 45% of whites, 63% of black voters, 41% of Hispanics and 35% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

Among voters who say America is going in the right direction, 86% choose Harris, while among those who say the country is on the wrong track, 74% pick Trump.

The “gender gap” yields a net 13-point difference, as Trump leads by nine points among men, 52% to 43%, while Harris has a four-point lead with women voters, 49% to 45%.

Eighty-four percent (84%) of self-identified liberal voters would vote for Harris, while 79% of conservatives would vote for Trump. Among moderate voters, Harris gets 58% to Trump’s 36%.

Harris leads by a single point, 47% to Trump’s 46%, among under-40 voters, while Trump leads by five points, 50% to Harris’s 45%, among those ages 40-64, and the two candidates are tied among voters 65 and older, each with 49%.

Breaking down the electorate by income categories, Harris leads among voters earning more than $100,000 a year, while Trump leads by a 20-point margin – 58% to Harris’s 38% – among those with annual incomes between $30,000 and $50,000.

Private sector workers now favor Trump by a three-point margin, while Harris leads by 17 points among government employees.

A majority of voters want stricter gun control laws in America, including a ban on so-called “assault weapons.” 

As Election Day nears, voters trust Republicans more than Democrats on the issues of government corruption and energy policy.

Additional information  from this survey and a full demographic breakdown  are available to Platinum Members only.

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