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Wisconsin Senate: Baldwin (D) 51%, Thompson (R) 47%

Democratic Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin has reached the 50% mark of support against former Republican Governor Tommy Thompson in Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Wisconsin Voters shows Baldwin with 51% of the vote to Thompson’s 47%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts Senate: Warren (D) 49%, Brown (R) 47%

After months of running even, Democratic challenger Elizabeth Warren has inched ahead of Republican incumbent Scott Brown in Massachusetts' fiercely contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Massachusetts Voters finds Warren picking up 49% of the vote to Brown’s 47%.  Four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Massachusetts was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania Senate: Casey (D) 49%, Smith (R) 45%

Incumbent Democratic Senator Bob Casey, Jr. continues to attract 49% support from Pennsylvania voters, but his lead over Republican challenger Tom Smith is shrinking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows Casey leading by four, 49% to 45%. One percent (1%) plans to vote for someone else, while five percent (5%) remain undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

North Carolina: Romney 51%, Obama 48%

At the beginning of the year, North Carolina was designated by Rasmussen Reports as one of the Core Four states that would decide Election 2012. As the year has worn on, the Tar Heel State has continued to narrowly favor Mitt Romney over President Obama.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely North Carolina voters shows Romney attracting 51% of the vote, while Obama earns support from 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and another one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in North Carolina was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio: Obama 48%, Romney 47%

It’s still a one-point presidential race in Ohio, a critical battleground state where voters have already begun casting their ballots.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio voters shows President Obama with 48% support to Mitt Romney’s 47%. Two percent (2%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 750 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 10, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

38% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty-eight percent (38%) of Likely U.S. Voters now say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, October 7.

That’s up a point from 37% the week before and is the highest level of optimism since June 2009. The latest finding is up 14 points from 24% at the beginning of the year and up 22 points from 16% a year ago.

From July 25 through December 11 of last year, voter confidence in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the George W. Bush administration, remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. That finding began climbing in early January of this year to a high of 34% in the second week of February and then regularly tracked in the high 20s to low 30s until the week of September 3-9.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen October 1-7, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New Hampshire: Romney 48%, Obama 48%

Mitt Romney and Barack Obama are now tied in the swing state of New Hampshire.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in New Hampshire shows both candidates earning 48% of the vote. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This New Hampshire survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Wisconsin: Obama 51%, Romney 49%

President Obama maintains a slight edge over Mitt Romney in Wisconsin.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Badger State finds Obama with 51% support, while Romney picks up 49% of the vote. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Wisconsin survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Pennsylvania: Obama 51%, Romney 46%

President Obama still earns more than 50% support against Mitt Romney in Pennsylvania.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Pennsylvania Voters shows the president with 51% of the vote to Romney’s 46%. One percent (1%) likes another candidate, and another one percent (1%) remains undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Take the Rasmussen Challenge for a chance to win an IPad.  This week's entries will be accepted until 11:59pm ET tonight.

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This Pennsylvania survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 9, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nevada Senate: Heller (R) 48%, Berkley (D) 45%

Incumbent Republican Dean Heller still holds a small lead over his Democratic challenger, Congresswoman Shelley Berkley, in Nevada’s hotly contested U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows Heller earning 48% support to Berkley’s 45%. Three percent (3%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Nevada survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut: Obama 51%, Romney 45%

President Obama continues to lead Mitt Romney in Connecticut.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama with 51% support to 45% for Romney.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Nevada: Romney 47%, Obama 47%

President Obama and Mitt Romney are now tied in Nevada.

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Nevada Voters shows both candidates with 47% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and three percent (3%) more are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Nevada was conducted on October 8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Connecticut Senate: Murphy (D) 51%, McMahon (R) 46%

Democratic Congressman Chris Murphy has now moved to five-point lead over Republican businesswoman Linda McMahon in Connecticut’s U.S. Senate race.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Connecticut Voters shows Murphy with 51% of the vote, while McMahon earns 46% support. Two percent (2%) favor another candidate in the race, and one percent (1%) is undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The two candidates met in their first debate late Sunday morning. This poll was conducted later that day.

Additionally, Murphy’s lead is largely derived from “leaners.” These are people who initially indicate no preference for either of the candidates but indicate they are leaning towards one candidate when asked a follow-up question. Without leaners, it’s Murphy 46% and McMahon 45%. This is consistent with the notion that the state’s underlying Democratic tilt will help Murphy in the final analysis.

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This Connecticut survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC.  See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Democrats 44%, Republicans 43%

Democrats now lead Republicans by one point on the Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending October 7, 2012.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Democrat in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 43% would choose the Republican instead.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from October 1-7, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Nelson (D) 52%, Mack (R) 41%

Democratic incumbent Bill Nelson is pulling away in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, now crossing the 50% mark for the first time.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Sunshine State finds Nelson earning 52% of the vote, while Republican Connie Mack picks up 41% support.  One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate in the race, and six percent (6%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Colorado: Obama 49%, Romney 48%

The Colorado presidential race remains neck-and-neck as President Obama moves slightly ahead of Mitt Romney for the first time this year.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Colorado Voters shows the president with 49% of the vote to Romney’s 48%. One percent (1%) prefers some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Colorado was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is  onducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Iowa: Obama 49%, Romney 47%

President Obama is up slightly in the battleground state of Iowa.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Iowa Voters shows the president with 49% support to Republican challenger Mitt Romney’s 47%. One percent (1%) likes some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Iowa was conducted on October 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

54% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

Most voters continue to favor repeal of President Obama’s national health care law, with fewer than one-in-five who believe the law will reduce health care costs as its supporters promised.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 54% of Likely U.S. Voters favor repeal of the health care law, while 39% oppose it. This includes 43% who Strongly Favor repeal and 31% who are Strongly Opposed. (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on October 5-6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Ohio Senate: Brown (D) 46%, Mandel (R) 46%

The U.S. Senate race in Ohio is now a tie.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Ohio Voters finds incumbent Democrat Sherrod Brown and his Republican challenger Josh Mandel each earning 46% support. Two percent (2%) like another candidate, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Ohio now shifts back from Safe Democrat to a Toss-up in the Rasmussen Reports Senate Balance of Power rankings.  With the addition of Ohio, seven Senate races nationwide are Toss-Ups, but at this point it still appears likely that Democrats will retain control of the Senate.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Ohio was conducted on October 4, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

What They Told Us: Reviewing Last Week’s Key Polls - Week Ending October 6, 2012

Close as the presidential race has been for months, it doesn’t take much to make a difference, and Mitt Romney’s debate win this past week appears to have impacted the numbers in the Key Three Swing States – Florida, Ohio and Virginia. It’s too early to say what impact Friday’s government jobs report will have.

New Rasmussen Reports polling taken after the debate finds Romney up two in Florida, up one in Virginia and down one in Ohio. It is virtually impossible for Romney to win the White House without winning at least two of these three states. They remain Toss-Ups in the Rasmussen Reports Electoral College Projections. 

Romney remains slightly ahead in Missouri and North Carolina, while Obama has more comfortable leads in New Mexico and Washington State.