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Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 40%

Republicans hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, March 18. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 40% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by six points, 44% to 38%.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 12-18, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

56% Favor Repeal of Health Care Law

The U.S. Supreme Court will hear arguments on the constitutionality of the national health care law next week, and the number of voters who Strongly Support the law’s repeal is now at an eight-month high.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 56% at least somewhat favor repeal of the health care law, including 46% who Strongly Favor it. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose repeal, with 29% who are Strongly Opposed.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 17-18, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

41% Say America’s Best Days In Future

As economic confidence improves somewhat, the number of voters who feel the nation’s best days lie ahead is at its highest level in over two years of regular tracking.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 41% of Likely U.S. Voters think America’s best days are in the future, the highest level of optimism since late January 2010.  Slightly more (43%) still feel the nation’s best days are in the past, but that’s the lowest finding since the beginning of 2010 as well. Seventeen percent (17%) are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 11-12, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC . See methodology.

New Low: 28% Give Supreme Court Positive Ratings

Even before the U.S. Supreme Court begins hearings later this month on the constitutionality of the national health care law, fewer voters than ever view the high court positively.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely U.S. Voters shows that 28% give the Supreme Court good or excellent ratings. Nineteen percent (19%) rate the highest court in the land as poor. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13-14, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points ith a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Trails Santorum, Leads Romney in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama now trails former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum by four points in a hypothetical 2012 matchup in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The president continues to hold a modest lead in those states.

Santorum leads the president 48% to 44% in the so-called Core Four states. Five percent (5%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and two percent (2%) are undecided. This marks a shift from last week, when the president was slightly ahead of Santorum.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Obama remains ahead of Romney 46% to 42%, showing no change from last week. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 10-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Missouri Senate: McCaskill Behind Top Republican Challengers

Democratic incumbent Claire McCaskill now trails all four of the leading GOP hopefuls in Missouri’s U.S. Senate race.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Missouri shows the Democratic incumbent earning between 41% and 43% of the vote when matched against four potential GOP opponents. She trails the Republican challengers by margins ranging from four to ten percentage points.

This Missouri survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 14-15, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona 2012: Obama Trails Romney, Ties Santorum

President Obama lost to Senator John McCain in the Republican’s home state of Arizona 54% to 45% in 2008, and the president now trails GOP front-runner Mitt Romney by double-digits in a hypothetical 2012 matchup.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Arizona Voters shows the former Massachusetts governor with 51% support against Obama’s 40%. Seven percent (7%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida 2012: Obama Now Edges Romney and Santorum

President Obama now runs just barely ahead of both Republican front-runners in the key electoral state of Florida.

A new Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Florida Voters finds Obama leading former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney 46% to 43%. Seven percent (7%) like some other candidate, and four percent (4%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In a face-off with former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum, Obama posts a 45% to 43% lead. Eight percent (8%) favor someone else in the race, while four percent (4%) again remain undecided.

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

32% Say U.S. Heading In Right Direction

Thirty-two percent (32%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 11.

The latest finding is up two points from the previous survey but is down from a recent high of 34% measured in early February.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports March 5-11, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Arizona Senate: Top GOP Candidates Lead Democratic Challengers

Rasmussen Reports’ first look at the race to fill Jon Kyl’s U.S. Senate seat in Arizona shows both leading Republican hopefuls ahead of their top Democratic opponents.

A new statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Grand Canyon State finds Republican Congressman Jeff Flake earning 47% support to former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona’s 34%.  Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, while 16% are not sure.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

If attorney and party activist Don Bivens is the Democratic nominee, Flake still picks up 47%, while Bivens earns 30% of the vote. Given this matchup, three percent (3%) favor another candidate in the race, and another 20% are undecided. 

Businessman Wil Cardon, Flake’s top GOP primary challenger, leads Bivens by a 42% to 30% margin.  Four percent (4%) support some other candidate, while 24% are not sure. 

However, Cardon runs nearly even when Carmona is his Democratic challenger, leading 39% to 38%.  In that matchup, three percent (3%) like a different candidate, and 20% more are undecided.

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This Arizona survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Florida Senate: Mack (R) 43%, Nelson (D) 36%

Republican Congressman Connie Mack now posts a seven-point lead over Democratic Senator Bill Nelson in Florida’s U.S. Senate race, and the incumbent remains just ahead of his other two potential GOP rivals.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Likely Voters in Florida shows Mack with 43% support to Nelson’s 36%. Five percent (5%) like another candidate in the race, and a sizable 16% are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Florida survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted on March 13, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republican 44%, Democrats 38%

Republicans hold a six-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, March 11. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 44% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 38% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by three points, 44% to 41%.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from March 5-11, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

New High: 50% View Boehner Unfavorably

House Speaker John Boehner is less liked than ever, but voters still reserve their lowest opinions for Democratic congressional leaders Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 32% of Likely U.S. Voters share at least a somewhat favorable opinion of Boehner. But 50% now view the Ohio Republican at least somewhat unfavorably, up seven points from last month and his highest unfavorable rating since he took over as speaker of the House in January of last year. Eighteen percent (18%) still don’t know enough about him to venture an opinion. The new findings include eight percent (8%) with a Very Favorable opinion of Boehner and 26% with a Very Unfavorable one. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

The survey of 1,000 Likely Voters was conducted on March 5-6, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Obama Leads Romney, Santorum in Core Four States (FL, NC, OH, VA)

President Obama now holds modest leads over Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum in combined polling of key swing states Florida, North Carolina, Ohio and Virginia. The numbers mark a shift from late February when Obama was tied with both candidates in the four states. 

Obama is now ahead of the former Massachusetts governor 46% to 42%. Six percent (6%) prefer some other candidate in this matchup, and six percent (6%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

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The survey of 500 Likely Voters in Florida, Ohio, North Carolina and Virginia was conducted on March 3-8, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

National GOP: Romney 39%, Santorum 27%, Gingrich 17%, Paul 10%

Mitt Romney still holds a double-digit lead over Rick Santorum among Republicans nationwide, although the gap between the two is slightly narrower following Super Tuesday’s mixed signals. But more GOP voters than ever now expect Romney to be the party’s nominee.

The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Republican Primary Voters shows Romney ahead of Santorum by 12 points – 39% to 27%. That’s a little tighter than it was a week ago when Romney led the former U.S. senator from Pennsylvania by 16 – 40% to 24%. It was Romney's biggest lead and the highest level of support earned by any GOP candidate in regular surveying of the race. But two weeks before that, Santorum was up by 12 points – 39% to 27%.

The national survey of 1,000 Likely Republican Primary Voters was conducted on March 7, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Voters Are Less Sure Next President Will Be A Republican

Voters are less convinced that President Obama will be succeeded by a Republican.

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 57% of Likely U.S. Voters still think it it at least somewhat likely that the next president after Obama will be a Republican, including 34% who say it is Very Likely. But the overall finding is down from 66% in early February and the first time it's fallen out of the 60s since December 2009.  That belief ran as high as 71% in December 2010.

Just 28% say a Republican is unlikely to follow Obama, but that includes only five percent (5%) who feel it's Not At All Likely. Still, the overall level of skepticism has been that high only one other time - last July - since January 2010. It’s important to note that the question does not specify whether the “next” president will be elected in 2012 or 2016.  (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This national survey of 1,000 U.S. Likely Voters was conducted on March 1-2, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

30% Say U.S. Heading in Right Direction

Thirty percent (30%) of Likely U.S. Voters say the country is heading in the right direction, according to a new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey taken the week ending Sunday, March 4.

The latest finding continues the downward trend from 34% three weeks earlier, the highest level of optimism since April 2010. A week ago, 32% said the country is moving in the right direction.  From July 25 through December 11 of last year, the number of voters who were confident in the nation's current course resembled levels measured in the final months of the Bush administration, with voter confidence remaining in the narrow range of 14% to 19%. The number began climbing in mid-December along with gains in economic confidence but apparently peaked the week ending February 12.

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The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports February 27-March 4, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Nebraska: Romney 52%, Obama 35%

The top two Republican presidential hopefuls hold double-digit leads over President Obama in Nebraska, a state which has gone for the GOP candidate in every presidential election but one since 1940.

The first Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters in the Cornhusker State shows former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney leading the president by 17 points - 52% to 35%. Ten percent (10%) prefer some other candidate in the race, while three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

This Nebraska survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted March 5, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Generic Congressional Ballot: Republicans 44%, Democrats 41%

Republicans hold a four-point lead over Democrats on the latest Generic Congressional Ballot for the week ending Sunday, Feb. 26. 

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey finds that 43% of Likely U.S. Voters would vote for the Republican in their district’s congressional race if the election were held today, while 39% would choose the Democrat instead. Last week, the Republican led by just one point.

The national telephone survey of 3,500 Likely Voters was conducted by Rasmussen Reports from February 20-26, 2012. The margin of sampling error for the survey is +/- 2 percentage point with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Massachusetts: Obama 55%, Romney 38%

Mitt Romney trails President Obama in a head-to-head matchup in Massachusetts, and voters in the Bay State have mixed feelings about their former governor who now wants to sit in the White House.  

A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of Likely Voters in the state finds Obama earning 55% support to Romney’s 38%.  Four percent (4%) prefer some other candidate, while three percent (3%) are undecided.  (To see survey question wording, click here.) 

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This Massachusetts survey of 500 Likely Voters was conducted February 29, 2012 by Rasmussen Reports. The margin of sampling error is +/- 4.5 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Fieldwork for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.