There is a push and pull in the race for control of the U.S. Senate between the big picture electoral environment, which clearly benefits Republicans, and the day-to-day developments on the campaign trail, which do not always clearly benefit Republicans.
— The number of “crossover” districts — those won by different parties for president and House — has generally been declining over time.
— Under the current congressional district lines, there were only 16 crossover districts in 2020, with Republicans winning 9 Biden-won seats and Democrats winning 7 Trump-won seats.
— Based on the new district lines, and with a few states still outstanding, there are currently 16 incumbents running in districts that their party did not win for president: 11 Republicans in Biden seats and 5 Democrats in Trump seats.
— The Democrats may not hold a single Trump district next year, and the Republicans very well could hold many more Biden-won seats.
— 2008 Republican vice presidential nominee Sarah Palin surprised the political world when she announced a run to replace the late Don Young in Alaska’s at-large U.S. House seat.
— It’s not unusual for VP losers to subsequently win elected office, although in recent decades that has meant simply winning reelection to the job they held prior to being named to a presidential ticket.
— If Palin wins, she will set an obscure historical marker for unsuccessful postwar VP nominees.
— The U.S. Census Bureau recently reported changes in population from 2020 to 2021.
— While the headline findings mainly dealt with population declines, a number of places (particularly in the Sun Belt) are still experiencing substantial growth.
— A little more than 5 dozen counties with at least 100,000 residents grew by 3% or more from April 2020 to July 2021. These counties are spread across 20 states.
— Almost all of these counties vote Republican for president, although GOP presidential performance has eroded in many of them.
— Nearly half of these counties are in Florida and Texas, and the differing presidential trends in these fast-growing counties help illustrate the changing political trajectory of each state.
— President Joe Biden and his party are struggling amidst myriad challenges, including high gas prices. Gas prices have spiked in recent weeks following the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
— There is some association between higher gas prices and lower presidential approval, although the connection is not particularly strong.
— This association has been weaker over the past decade than it was previously.
— As Joe Biden marks a year in office, he has found himself in a perilous position, and there are no obvious signs of improvement.
— Among Biden’s challenges is an apparently weakened position among nonwhite voters as well as younger voters, two immensely important pillars of the Democratic coalition.
— Inflation has re-emerged as an important problem for what appears to be the first time in decades, and Biden has work to do to persuade the public that he’s taking it seriously.
— With some key national factors seemingly in their favor, Republicans could win a healthy majority in the House in 2022 — perhaps even their biggest in nearly a century.
— However, compared to past Republican midterm wave cycles, specifically 1994 and 2010, Republicans probably have less room for growth.
— As a majority of states have enacted new maps, we can chart out what a banner night for House Republicans may look like.
-- Amid a promising national environment for Republicans, we are changing ratings in 4 gubernatorial contests -- 3 of which are in the GOP’s favor.
-- The power of gubernatorial incumbency will be tested in 2022, both by a plethora of Republican primary challengers to sitting GOP governors and, for Democrats, by the national political climate in next year’s general election.
-- This election will feature a relatively high number of incumbents running for reelection compared to many previous midterm years (midterms are when the bulk of the gubernatorial elections are held).
-- Despite playing defense in many vulnerable races across the country, Democrats have the 2 clearest gubernatorial pickup opportunities.
-- Gerrymanders by Democrats in Illinois and Republicans in Ohio seek to build upon their dominance of their respective states.
-- The Ohio Supreme Court could intervene against the GOP gerrymander there, which perhaps helps explain why Republicans were not as aggressive as they could have been, even though Republicans can reasonably hope that the map they drew will perform for them as intended.
-- Massachusetts Democrats and Oklahoma Republicans also recently finalized maps that should allow both to maintain their monopolies on House seats in their respective states.
-- Gov. Charlie Baker’s (R-MA) retirement pushes the Massachusetts gubernatorial race from Likely Republican all the way to Likely Democratic.
— The Greater South used to be the key cog in Democratic House majorities; now it is the region that allows Republicans to win majorities.
— Democrats’ dominance on the West Coast and Northeast have allowed them to win majorities even as they have fallen further behind in the Greater South.
— The Republican edge in the Greater South should only grow in 2022.
— The vote count in California is finally done, and there were some noticeable trends in the results.
— While the recall election largely lined up with the 2018 gubernatorial result, some notable changes are evident when comparing last month’s vote to other recent statewide races.
— That the Democrats performed very well in that race even in the midst of Joe Biden’s still ongoing slide in popularity is an interesting data point, but it’s just a single one that may not be confirmed by looming statewide races in more competitive states, such as Virginia.
— In the closely-watched Virginia gubernatorial race, Glenn Youngkin (R) is keeping it close with Terry McAuliffe (D), in part because he now enjoys some of the advantages that Democrats enjoyed in Virginia during Donald Trump’s presidency.
— Though the McAuliffe campaign has worked relentlessly to tie Youngkin to Trump, an unpopular figure in the commonwealth who has endorsed Youngkin several times, President Biden’s weakened approval ratings weigh on Democrats. Congressional Democrats’ lack of action on big-item legislation, specifically on infrastructure and social spending, also seems to be dampening enthusiasm among their rank-and-file voters.
— The down-ballot races will probably be linked closely with the top of the ticket, with the state House of Delegates up for grabs in addition to the other statewide offices.
— While early voting is down a good deal compared to last year’s presidential race, as expected, it is hard to draw firm conclusions from these totals because the lion’s share of Virginians have traditionally voted on Election Day, aside from last year during the pandemic.
— Democrats already control the vast majority of seats along the eastern seaboard from Virginia to Maine.
— New York offers Democrats their greatest gerrymandering upside of any state, but it is not guaranteed that they will maximize their holdings there.
— Virginia’s unproven new commission system makes redistricting there a mystery, although Republicans could re-take control of the state’s congressional delegation through a combination of redistricting fortune and strong electoral performance.
— Republicans in New Hampshire and Democrats in Maryland face notable gerrymandering decisions.
Democrats will try to wring a bit more out of Illinois, while divided government, judges, and new redistricting methods cloud the outlook elsewhere.
— This week, we’re looking at redistricting in seven Midwest/Great Lakes states: Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.
— The highly competitive region was a collective nailbiter for president, and Republicans hold an overall House edge there, though not as large as earlier last decade.
— Illinois is really the only large state where Democrats clearly should have unfettered gerrymandering power, but with a 13-5 edge already and one seat needing to be eliminated, they don’t have a ton of room to grow. But Democrats also will try to solidify some of the seats they already have.
— Divided government in Minnesota, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin could very well mean courts have to get involved, while Michigan and Ohio are implementing new redistricting systems.
And a look at the overall political environment.
— For all of the focus on redistricting, the overall political environment matters for House elections too, and President Biden has shown some signs of weakness in recent weeks.
— As we continue our redistricting series, we analyze several small-to-medium-sized states in the Interior West and Heartland.
— One of the overall things to watch in the region is the degree to which Republicans are aggressive in redistricting, even in a state — Iowa — known for a nonpartisan system.
What will commissions (and Democrats) draw out West?
— Independent redistricting commissions are most common out West.
— Democrats currently dominate the House delegations from the West Coast and Southwest, and that is likely to continue.
— However, Republicans may be able to make up a little ground, thanks in part to California losing a seat and Oregon gaining one.
— Democrats can gerrymander Nevada and New Mexico, but it will be difficult for them to squeeze an additional seat out of these small states.
The GOP gerrymandering possibilities in FL, GA, NC, and TX
— Democrats tried but failed to get a seat at the redistricting table in four large Southern states in the 2018 and 2020 cycles: Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.
— The consequences for redistricting are vitally important. It’s easy to imagine Republicans squeezing a half-dozen extra seats out of just these four states in 2022, and that may be just a floor on their potential gains.
— However, Republicans could also overreach, and court battles appear likely in all of these states.
The Outlook in AL, AR, KY, LA, MS, OK, SC, TN, & WV
— Republicans dominate redistricting in a number of small-to-medium-sized states in the Deep South and Greater Appalachia.
— The GOP also already holds the lion’s share of seats in these states, but they may be able to squeeze a bit more out of them.
— Democrats are hoping the courts could help them salvage an extra seat or two out of these states, while Republicans may aggressively target, most notably, Rep. Jim Cooper (D, TN-5) in Nashville.
— While partisan gerrymandering is nothing new in American politics, it has become easier to find examples of states where gerrymanders are consistently effective and harder to find examples of “dummymanders” — gerrymanders that fail.
— Republicans control the drawing of more districts in this round of decennial redistricting than Democrats do.
— Democrats arguably would be better off if no states had bipartisan/independent redistricting commissions.
A look at who controls statewide executive offices across the country.
— Currently, one party controls all of the statewide elected executive offices in 36 of the 50 states.
— Candidate decisions by down-ballot executive officeholders in Florida and Missouri could make Republican statewide sweeps easier in those states, and Democrats may have opportunities to sweep more states on their side.
