If it's in the News, it's in our Polls. Public opinion polling since 2003.

Political Commentary

Most Recent Releases

July 2, 2024

Save the Cows By Stephen Moore

   Enjoy your cheeseburgers and steaks when you fire up the grill this Fourth of July weekend, because they may not be available much longer.

June 28, 2024

COVID-19: Another Fail-Safe Institution Proves Not So Safe By Michael Barone

Between 1998 and 2003, the budget of the National Institutes of Health was doubled. This was an extraordinary enterprise after the multi-year, post-Cold War decline in defense spending and at a time when government agency budgets tended to be increased marginally or carried over from previous years.

White letter R on blue background
June 27, 2024

The ‘Somewhats’ Election: Soft Biden Disapprovers Key for Both Candidates By Dan Guild

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— Despite an overall job approval rating hovering around just 40% in polling averages, President Biden retains a path to victory.

— This is because of his unusual competitiveness among voters who just “somewhat” disapprove of his job performance, a group among whom Democrats performed relatively strongly in the 2022 midterm and where polling shows Biden holding up reasonably well in 2024.

— Relatively similar numbers of voters strongly disapprove of Biden’s job performance and hold a strongly unfavorable view of Donald Trump. Biden’s “strong” approval is fairly low, though, compared to recent incumbents who ran for reelection.

— The “somewhat disapprovers” skew younger and nonwhite, which presents Biden with both an opportunity and a challenge.

June 26, 2024

A Candidate Who Cares About Freedom By John Stossel

   Former President Donald Trump spoke at the Libertarian Party convention, asking delegates to vote for him, promising, "I will put a libertarian in my Cabinet!"

June 26, 2024

Climate Change Movement Goes to Court -- Will Judges Ban Fossil Fuels? By Stephen Moore

   Things aren't going well at all for the global warming crusaders. Despite hundreds of billions of tax dollars spent on green energy over the past decade, the world and America used more fossil fuels than ever before in history last year.

June 25, 2024

Separate Sexual Identity and State By Daniel McCarthy

A new crime wave has gripped the country, and this time progressives are calling for harsh penalties, even charging teenagers with felonies.

June 24, 2024

The Question Trump Needs to Ask Repeatedly Until November 5 By Brian Joondeph

The upcoming election is unique in that both current candidates have a record to run on. Not as a senator or governor, but as the U.S. President, each having served a term in the White House.

June 21, 2024

The Numbers Show Voters Don't Want an Eight-Year Presidency By Michael Barone

Four weeks after former President Donald Trump's conviction in a much-criticized Manhattan prosecution and a week before the first and earliest-ever scheduled post-primary presidential debate, it's a good time to look at how these two unusually elderly and oft-reviled candidates stand in the contest.

June 19, 2024

You Owe $100,000! By John Stossel

America is now almost $35 trillion in debt. That means every American owes $100,000.

June 18, 2024

Nigel Farage Makes the Trump Moment Permanent By Daniel McCarthy

   First came Brexit, then came Trump -- and now it's happening again.

June 18, 2024

Some 40 Years Later: A Nation STILL at Risk By Stephen Moore

   School's out for the summer, so now it is time to examine the state of our education system.

June 14, 2024

European 'Far Right' Issues a Stinging Rebuke to Elites By Michael Barone

"The far right made big gains in European elections," reads the Associated Press headline on last week's European Parliament elections. Lest you wonder why you should dread gains by the "far right," the lead sentence of the article notes that the EU has "roots in the defeat of Nazi Germany and fascist Italy."

White letter R on blue background
June 13, 2024

Electoral College Rating Changes: Half-Dozen Moves Toward Republicans in What Remains a Toss-up Race By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— We are making six Electoral College rating changes this week, all in favor of Republicans.

— However, we don’t really see a clear favorite in a presidential race with many confounding factors.

— We consider Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to all be must-wins for the Democrats. While one can hypothetically come up with paths to 270 electoral votes for Democrats without them, we don’t find those paths to be compelling.

— Sen. Bob Casey (D-PA) remains a favorite in our ratings, but our shift of Pennsylvania to Toss-up in the presidential race prompts a concurrent change in his race, from Likely to Leans Democratic.

June 12, 2024

Success in Classrooms By John Stossel

Government-run schools keep failing.

June 11, 2024

1984 in 2024: Orwell Was Right By Daniel McCarthy

Americans still read George Orwell's "Nineteen Eighty-Four," 75 years after it was first published on June 8, 1949.

June 11, 2024

Biden Housing Scheme Could Ignite Another 2008 Mortgage Crisis By Stephen Moore

Politicians in Washington have very short memories, so they repeat the same mistakes over and over.

June 7, 2024

Using a 'Sham Case' to Undermine Democracy By Michael Barone

"A sham case, and everyone knows it." So writes the iconoclastic Matt Taibbi, once counted as a left-wing writer, and he's not the only one from outside MAGA precincts who has been appalled by the Manhattan district attorney's case that produced a guilty verdict against former President Donald Trump.

White letter R on blue background
June 6, 2024

President vs. Senate: What to Watch in the Polls, and What History Suggests By Kyle Kondik

KEY POINTS FROM THIS ARTICLE

— A persistent finding in swing state polls is that Democrats are doing better in Senate races than Joe Biden is doing in the presidential race.

— At the topline, 2016 and 2020 produced hardly any split presidential and Senate results, suggesting that perhaps the presidential and Senate polling should converge.

— However, even in those years, there still was variation from state to state between the presidential and Senate margins.

— Focusing on the Senate races in the presidential swing states distracts from the races that will truly decide the Senate majority: red state seats with Democratic incumbents, Montana and Ohio.

June 5, 2024

Freedom Under Trump By John Stossel

Donald Trump recently spoke at the Libertarian National Convention.

June 4, 2024

Hey Joe: Where Are All the EV Charging Stations? By Stephen Moore

The Biden administration has spent tens of billions of dollars on green energy, yet last year the U.S. and the world used record amounts of fossil fuels.