Election 2024: Battleground States Closely Divided

The presidential contest between former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris is neck-and-neck in five crucial battleground” states.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA finds that, if the election were held today, 48% of Likely Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Three percent (3%) say they’d vote for some other candidate and two percent (2%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Thirty-five percent (35%) of battleground state voters say the economy is the most important issue for them, followed by border security (17%) and abortion (13%). The state-by-state breakdown of the presidential race:

– ARIZONA: Trump 47%, Harris 45%

1,187 Likely Voters, August 13-17, 2024 (Toplines , Crosstabs )

– MICHIGAN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%

1,093 Likely Voters, August 13-17, 2024 (Toplines , Crosstabs )

– NEVADA: Trump 48%, Harris 46%

980 Likely Voters, August 13-18, 2024 (Toplines , Crosstabs )

– PENNSYLVANIA: Trump 47%, Harris 46%

1,312 Likely Voters, August 13-17, 2024 (Toplines , Crosstabs )

– WISCONSIN: Harris 48%, Trump 47%

1,099 Likely Voters, August 13-19, 2024 (Toplines , Crosstabs )

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The survey of 5,671 Likely Voters in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin was conducted on August 13-20, 2024 by Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA. The margin of sampling error is +/- 1 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence; for each individual state’s results, the margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Asked to rate the immigration policies of President Joe Biden’s administration, 14% of battleground state voters rated them Very Successful, 28% said Biden’s immigration policies were Somewhat Successful, 12% rated them Somewhat Unsuccessful, and 41% considered the Biden administration’s immigration policies Very Unsuccessful. By comparison, a majority (57%) rated the immigration policies of Trump’s administration either Very Successful (38%) or Somewhat Successful (19%).

If Harris were elected president, only 26% of battleground state voters believe her immigration policies would be better than Biden’s, while 50% think Trump’s immigration policies would be better.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/NumbersUSA survey of battleground state voters:

– On the issue of illegal immigration, 61% believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays. Just 11% see the government as doing too much immigration enforcement, while 19% consider the level of action about right and another 10% are not sure.

– Fifty-nine percent (59%) agree that the millions of illegal immigrants who have come to the U.S. in the last four years has created a severe shortage of housing, forcing rents and home prices to rise, including 37% who Strongly Agree.

– Fifty-nine percent (59%) believe it’s likely that the increased illegal immigration in the past few years was purposely allowed by the Biden administration, including 44% who consider it Very Likely.

– Forty-one percent (41%) would support legislation to grant amnesty to illegal aliens and allow them to become permanent U.S. residents, while 52% would oppose amnesty legislation.

– Fifty-five percent (55%) would support a policy of deporting all illegal aliens, including 36% who would Strongly Support deportation. Thirty-nine percent (39%) oppose such a policy, including 22% who would Strongly Oppose deportation.

– If given a choice between two candidates, one of whom favored granting amnesty to illegal aliens and one of whom favored deporting all illegal aliens, 50% of battleground state voters would vote for the candidate favoring deportation, while 36% would vote for the amnesty candidate and 13% are not sure.

– In the contest for control of the U.S. House of Representatives, 47% of battleground state voters say that, if the elections for Congress were held today, they would vote for the Democratic candidate, while 46% would vote for the Republican candidate. Six percent (6%) are undecided.

– The major party vice-presidential candidates are rated about equally by battleground state voters, with 45% having a favorable impression of Republican J.D. Vance and 44% viewing Democrat Tim Walz favorably.

Biden’s handling of the war between Russia and Ukraine doesn’t get high marks from most voters, and a plurality think Trump would do a better job than Harris.

As the presidential election season enters its final ten weeks, many voters are skeptical of whether public polling accurately reflects the state of the campaign.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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