Election 2024: Trump 50%, Harris 47% in Wisconsin

In the closing days of the 2024 presidential campaign, President Donald Trump has a three-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the battleground state of Wisconsin.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker finds that, if the election were held today, 50% of Likely Wisconsin voters would vote for Trump, while 47% would vote for Harris. Two percent (2%) say they would vote for some other candidate, while only one percent (1%) are still undecided. In the previous survey, Trump led by two points in Wisconsin. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

In Wisconsin’s U.S. Senate race, meanwhile, incumbent Democrat Sen. Tammy Baldwin is now tied with her Republican challenger Eric Hovde, each with 47% of the vote. One percent (1%) would vote for some other Senate candidate, while four percent (4%) are undecided. Baldwin led the previous survey by a one-point margin.

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The survey of 818 Wisconsin Likely Voters was conducted October 25-29, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

More than half of Wisconsin voters see either the economy (30%) or border security (21%) as the most important issue in the election, while 13% rank abortion as most important. However, when asked which issue is the most important one for the next president to solve, voters are evenly divided between rising prices and illegal immigration, each at 29%.

“That concern about the border is very real,” said American Thinker managing editor Andrea Widburg. “When asked about legal immigration, 30% of likely voters want the numbers decreased, and 26% want a temporary cessation. Fifty-seven percent of them say that it’s very or somewhat accurate to call what’s happening at the Southern border as an ‘invasion,’ and a full 63% strongly or somewhat support deporting the illegal aliens already here. Thirty percent also blame Biden for what’s happening with immigration.”

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/American Thinker survey of Wisconsin voters:

– In the battle to control the U.S. House of Representatives, Republicans have a three-point lead (49% to 46%) over Democrats in Pennsylvania on the so-called “generic ballot” question.

– Just 37% of Wisconsin voters say they are better off than they were four years ago, while a majority (55%) aren’t better off. Only 19% believe today’s children will be better off than their parents, while 55% don’t think so and 26% are not sure.

– Eighty-two percent (82%) consider it Very Important to prevent cheating in elections, and 54% believe it is at least somewhat likely that wider use of mail-in voting will lead to more cheating in elections.

– Fifty-two percent (52%) of whites, 30% of black voters, 39% of Hispanics and 57% of other minorities would vote for Trump, while 45% of whites, 62% of black voters, 60% of Hispanics and 42% of other minorities would vote for Harris.

– The “gender gap” is a major factor in Wisconsin, where men favor Trump by a 15-point margin – 57% to Harris’s 42% – and Harris wins women voters by a 10-point margin, with 53% to Trump’s 43%.

– Breaking down the electorate by age categories, Harris leads among voters under 40, while Trump’s biggest advantage is among those ages 50 to 64.

– Only 38% of Wisconsin voters plan to wait until Election Day to vote, while 31% had already voted before they answered the survey.

Trump has a three-point lead over Harris in our final national poll of the 2024 presidential election.

Trump leads Harris in the crucial battleground states of Pennsylvania, Nevada and North Carolina.

President Joe Biden earned a monthly job approval of 44% in October, unchanged from September. Fifty-five percent (55%) disapproved of his job performance in October, also unchanged from September. 

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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The survey of 818 Wisconsin Likely Voters was conducted October 25-29, 2024, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and American Thinker. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research.