Last Sunday, pollster John Zogby created quite a stir by announcing his view that the election is now Kerry's to lose. John is a good pollster and makes many good points, but I respectfully disagree with him on this one.
Half of America's voters expect the situation in Iraq to get worse during the coming months. A Rasmussen Reports survey found that just 30% expect things to get better.
Nine-out-of-ten Americans have read, seen, or heard news stories about the abuse of Iraqi prisoners. Half of all voters (48%) believe that such abuses represent an isolated event. However, 29% believe such practices are fairly widespread.
President George W. Bush and Senator John F. Kerry are tied in Arkansas. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found both men earning 45% of the vote.
Senator John F. Kerry holds an eight-point lead over President George W. Bush in Wisconsin. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in that state found Kerry earning 50% of the vote to Bush's 42%.
Just 38% of American voters have a favorable opinion of the United Nations these days. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey found that 44% have an unfavorable view.
Just 38% of American voters have a favorable opinion of the United Nations these days. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey found that 44% have an unfavorable view.
Four years ago, Al Gore defeated George W. Bush in Oregon by about 7,000 votes out of more than 1.5 million. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey in Oregon finds that things are just as close today.
In the state of California, a Rasmussen Reports survey finds that Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush by eleven points, 51% to 40%. That spread matches the 11 point margin of victory earned by Al Gore four years ago.
Many people have written recently with various forms of the same message: "National polls don't matter in the Presidential Race. As we learned four years ago, the only thing that counts is the Electoral College."
Four years ago, George W. Bush won New Hampshire's four Electoral Votes by a single percentage point (48% to 47%). In Election 2004, it may be that close again.
In New Jersey, Senator John F. Kerry leads President George W. Bush 51% to 39%. Four years ago, Bush lost the state by sixteen points to Al Gore, 56% to 40%.
When it comes to issues of national defense and the War on Terror, Garden State voters are evenly divided as to who would do a better job--45% say Bush and another 45% say Kerry. Nationally, Bush has a significant edge on this issue.
New Jersey Governor Jim McGreevey trails Bret Schundler 46% to 39% in the latest Rasmussen Reports poll. Three years ago, in the 2001 election, McGreevey trounced Schundler by 14 percentage points. The New Jersey Governor's race will be held in November 2005.
Sometimes it is important to pull back from the day-to-day numbers and take a look at the history of Presidential Elections. When you compare the parties over the past 100 years or so, it becomes clear that Republicans and Democrats typically win the Presidency in different ways.
In West Virginia, President Bush leads John Kerry by five percentage points, 46% to 41%. Four years ago, Bush won the state by six points over Al Gore, 52% to 46%.
In Colorado, President Bush leads John Kerry by just five percentage points, 49% to 44%. Four years ago, Bush won Colorado by nine points over Al Gore, 51% to 42%.
Pete Coors is a political newcomer, but he's already competitive in the race for Colorado's U.S. Senate seat. A day after announcing his entry into the race, Coors trails Attorney General Ken Salazar by just six percentage points, 47% to 41%.
Florida voters are a bit more optimistic about the U.S. economy than voters across the nation.
In the state of Florida, the race to replace retiring Senator Bob Graham is a toss-up. While the party nominees have not been selected, match-ups among some leading candidates show this seat is up for grabs in Election 2004.
In the state of Florida, the race for President is a toss-up. The latest Rasmussen Reports survey finds Massachusetts Senator John F. Kerry attracting 47% of the vote in the Sunshine State and President George W. Bush earning 46%.
