Montana: GOP Challenger Leads Tester in Senate Race

Republican businessman Tim Sheehy has opened a seven-point lead over Democratic Sen. Jon Tester in Montana’s closely-watched Senate race.

A new telephone and online survey by Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA finds that, if the election were held today, 50% of Likely Montana voters would vote for Sheehy and 43% would vote for Tester. Four percent (4%) say they would vote for some other candidate and three percent (3%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)

Immigration may be a key factor in the Montana Senate contest. Tester rates an “F” grade for his immigration record from NumbersUSA. Fifty-three percent (53%) of Montana voters say that makes them less likely to vote for Tester, while just 20% say the “F” grade makes them more likely to vote for Tester, and 23% say it makes no difference.

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The survey of 835 Montana Likely Voters was conducted on August 13-20, 2024, by Rasmussen Reports and NumbersUSA. The margin of sampling error is +/- 3 percentage points with a 95% level of confidence. Field work for all Rasmussen Reports surveys is conducted by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC. See methodology.

Twenty-nine (29%) percent of Montana voters believe that, In general, the immigration policies of the Biden administration have been successful, including eight percent (8%) who consider them Very Successful, but 64% think Biden’s immigration policies have been unsuccessful, including 48% who say they are Very Unsuccessful.

While 61% believe Trump’s immigration policies would be better than Biden’s, only 17% say the same of Harris.

Among other findings of the Rasmussen Reports/NumbersUSA survey of Montana voters:

– Former President Donald Trump holds a 23-point lead – 58% to 35% – over Vice President Kamala Harris. Fifty-six percent (56%) of Montana voters have a favorable impression of Trump, compared to 36% who have a favorable impression of Harris.

– Thirty-seven percent (37%) say the economy is the most important issue influencing their vote in the presidential election, followed by border security (17%), government corruption (12%) and abortion (10%).

– Sixty-seven percent support legislation to implement E-Verify, which would make it harder for businesses to hire illegal aliens, including 42% who Strongly Support such legislation. Only 23% are opposed to E-Verify legislation.

– On the issue of illegal immigration, 67% believe the government is doing too little to reduce illegal border crossings and visitor overstays. Just 10% see the government as doing too much immigration enforcement, while 15% consider the level of action about right.

– Sixty-four percent (64%) agree that the millions of illegal immigrants who have come to the U.S. in the last four years has created a severe shortage of housing, forcing rents and home prices to rise, including 38% who Strongly Agree.

– Sixty-three percent (63%) believe it’s likely that the increased illegal immigration in the past few years was purposely allowed by the Biden administration, including 47% who consider it Very Likely.

– Thirty-six percent (36%) would support legislation to grant amnesty to illegal aliens and allow them to become permanent U.S. residents, while 59% would oppose amnesty legislation.

– Sixty-six percent (66%) would support a policy of deporting all illegal aliens, including 37% who would Strongly Support deportation. Thirty-one percent (31%) oppose such a policy, including 19% who would Strongly Oppose deportation.

– If given a choice between two candidates, one of whom favored granting amnesty to illegal aliens and one of whom favored deporting all illegal aliens, 60% of Montana voters would vote for the candidate favoring deportation, while 29% would vote for the amnesty candidate and 11% are not sure.

Trump continues to lead Harris nationally, but the margin is now down to a mere two points.

Most voters don’t believe state officials have done enough to prevent voting by illegal immigrants or to stop outside groups from interfering in elections.

The presidential contest between former Trump and Harris is neck-and-neck in five crucial battleground” states.

Additional information from this survey and a full demographic breakdown are available to the public as well as to Platinum Members.

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